When Data Lies: Why Trusting your Gut Still Matters in Innovation

By Jolly Pradhan

When you’re building something new—a solution that doesn’t exist yet, in a market that may or may not take shape—data isn’t always enough. In fact, sometimes data lies.

That’s when your gut becomes more than a hunch—it’s a decision-making tool.

As a systems engineer who has spent 15+ years in industries like Energy, Semiconductor, Healthcare, and HR Tech, I’ve seen the messy middle of innovation up close. And here’s the truth: in uncertain markets, you’ll never have perfect information. You need both good data and the wisdom of experience.

1. Don’t Confuse Gut with Bias

Your gut is the sum of your experience—what worked, what didn’t, the lessons you carry forward. But it’s not the same as bias or internal politics.

Think of it like dessert preferences. I love chocolate lava cake. My husband loves carrot cake. Neither one is objectively “better”—that’s just bias.

When teams make high-stakes decisions, bias and politics can creep in fast. That’s where an outside perspective helps. Just like a waiter who says, “90% of tables ordered chocolate,” an objective voice can ground decisions in reality.

The same applies to innovation and exploring new markets. The key is to ask as many objective, unbiased questions as possible.

Takeaway: Your gut is informed intuition. Bias is noise—that can lead you into costly mistakes. Know the difference.

2. How to Tell if It’s Gut or Bias

The first step is awareness. Bias is human—it’s impossible to eliminate—but recognizing it keeps it from running the show.

Ask yourself: “Is this what the customer truly needs—or what I hope they want so I can sell my product?” 

That pause is critical.

When I work with clients, they often ask, “Should we do this or that?” Instead of rushing to answer, I pause and think out loud: “Okay, here’s where we are… what makes the most sense given the context?”

That short pause often reveals whether a thought is rooted in experience (gut) or preference and assumption (bias).

Takeaway: Pause before acting. Reflection helps separate informed intuition from hidden bias.

3. It’s Not Just the Data You Collect—It’s How You Collect It

In B2B, data isn’t about endless surveys. It’s about real conversations and looking at the bigger picture. A 20–30 minute interview with a stakeholder often reveals more than a spreadsheet full of biased survey questions.

For example, asking someone, “Do you want a phone? Don’t you love this function?” already pushes them toward your solution.

A better question would be, “How do you communicate with people—and what do you love or hate about it?” 

Helpful Tip: Start broad, then narrow. Funnel the insights.

Another Tip: After each conversation, I recommend taking 5–10 minutes to jot down two or three key takeaways. By the time you’ve spoken with 5–10 people, the details can blur. Those quick notes help you spot patterns that might otherwise get lost.

But interviews are only one piece of the puzzle. To truly understand a market, you need to look across multiple sources:

• Voice of Customer (VoC) interviews provide direct insight into customer pain points.

• Industry conferences and events help you spot emerging trends, notice what competitors are showcasing, and pick up on themes shaping the market.

• Competitor research lets you distinguish between companies selling a dream and those with a product that actually delivers.

This is where systems thinking comes in: by connecting these inputs, you begin to see how customer needs, market trends, and competitor actions interact and influence each other. Only when you step back and view the whole system can you spot the patterns and make truly informed decisions.

Takeaway: Collect multiple inputs—customer conversations, market trends, and competitor signals—and connect the dots to make smarter decisions.

4. Data ≠ Truth

Data can be manipulated. Misinterpreted. Or just plain made up.

I once saw a Ph.D. use two data points to “prove” a trend. Another time, a team projected extraordinary revenue growth with staffing numbers that didn’t add up. Neither was malicious—just a lack of experience. But both could have misled their stakeholders.

Takeaway: Always ask: Where does this data come from? Is it reliable, relevant, and timely?

5. Don’t Rush Just for the Sake of Speed

A lawyer friend once rushed a contract for a client—only to have the customer sit on it for two months and then change everything. She was blamed for delays that weren’t hers.

Speed without alignment is wasted effort. In innovation, moving too fast without context often means rework later.

Takeaway: Balance speed with alignment. Moving fast today might mean redoing it five times tomorrow.

6. When the Data Isn’t There, Listen to Your Gut

Sometimes the data says the market is too small. But what if the market just hasn’t emerged yet?

For instance, I’ve seen companies calculate the Total Addressable Market (TAM) and decide it was too small to pursue—pivoting away too quickly because “the numbers didn’t add up.” But sometimes a future market looks tiny today simply because it hasn’t yet emerged, and in those cases, intuition may be pointing toward an opportunity still taking shape.

Takeaway: When data is thin, ask: Am I pivoting based on logic—or fear?

Closing Thought

Innovation is rarely neat. Data is critical, but so is experience. Your gut—when stripped of bias and grounded in lessons learned—can be the compass when the map isn’t finished yet.

That’s the power of systems thinking: connecting the dots across customer needs, market forces, and gut experience to navigate when the data isn’t enough.

When data lies, trust your gut.